The discovery of commercial quantities of crude oil in the Albertine Graben basin, located in the west of Uganda near the border with the Democratic Republic of Congo, was made nearly 20 years ago. However, production from this basin is not expected to commence until next year.

Nankabirwa revealed that government geologists are now investigating the oil potential in two new areas: the Moroto-Kadam Basin in the northeast and the Kyoga Basin in the north. Preliminary studies in these regions show promise.

“The ministry is conducting initial exploration studies in the Moroto-Kadam Basin and the Kyoga Basin to evaluate their oil and gas potential,” Nankabirwa said. “Early results indicate that the Moroto-Kadam Basin may have significant commercial oil and gas potential.”

Uganda has five identified basins with suspected hydrocarbon potential, but only the Albertine basin has been extensively explored so far. Within the Albertine basin, the Tilenga and Kingfisher fields are predominantly owned by TotalEnergies (56.7% stake), with China’s CNOOC and the Uganda National Oil Company (UNOC) holding the remainder.

Commercial production has faced delays due to various challenges, including disputes with oil companies over field development and taxation, as well as a lack of infrastructure and funding. Currently, only 72 of the 457 planned wells in the Tilenga and Kingfisher fields have been drilled.

The government is also awaiting a decision next month from Chinese financiers, including EXIM Bank and SINOSURE, regarding funding for the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP). This 1,445-kilometer pipeline will facilitate the export of Ugandan crude oil through a port on Tanzania’s Indian Ocean coast.

Additionally, oil companies have proposed a liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) facility, for which the government plans to issue a license soon.

The company had previously sought to raise over $500 million through prepayment deals to address the impact of the PGM price slump, which significantly affected its earnings. Metals prepayment agreements involve selling future production for an upfront cash payment, providing immediate liquidity.

Sibanye Stillwater’s profits fell by $2 billion last year, driven by lower metal prices and a $2.6 billion write-down on the value of its U.S. palladium mines, a French nickel operation, and a South African gold mine. CEO Neal Froneman described the prepayment deal as a “proactive, strategic financing alternative” to enhance the company’s liquidity and balance sheet.

Under the deal, Sibanye will deliver 1,497 kg of gold in equal monthly installments from October 2024 to November 2026 in exchange for the prepaid funds, which will be used to repay existing loans.

In addition, Sibanye has refinanced and increased its 5.5 billion rand revolving credit facility with South African lenders. The original facility, set to mature in November 2024, has been replaced with a 6 billion rand facility that will now mature in August 2027, with an option to extend by an additional two years.

The refinery will be built in Jomoro, a southwestern city, and will be funded by a consortium including Touchstone Capital Group Holdings, UIC Energy Ghana, China Wuhan Engineering Co., and China Construction Third Engineering Bureau Co., as announced on state-owned Ghana Television (GTV).

Since discovering oil in 2010, Ghana’s production has reached approximately 132,000 barrels per day of crude oil and 325 million standard cubic feet per day of natural gas. West Africa’s current oil consumption stands at about 800,000 barrels per day, with nearly 90% of this being imported. The new petroleum hub aims to meet the region’s refining needs by 2036, as outlined in a 2018 agreement.

Despite the ambitious goals, the project has sparked controversy. Bright Simons, vice president of Accra-based think tank IMANI Africa, has criticized the consortium, alleging it lacks a solid business plan and is merely speculating on land acquisition.

Local opposition has also emerged, with some residents of the proposed 20,000-acre site protesting and calling for the project’s footprint to be reduced to 5,000 acres. Oliver Barker-Vormawor, a senior partner at the law firm representing affected farmers, argues that the government’s approach disregards valid concerns about the project’s social and environmental impacts, including the displacement of farmers and issues of land rights.

The government has largely dismissed these concerns, highlighting support from other community members who back the development.

Following his victory in March, President Bassirou Diomaye Faye, who ousted the ruling coalition candidate, ordered a comprehensive audit of the oil, gas, and mining sectors. He pledged to revisit and amend agreements with foreign operators if necessary to better serve national interests.

Details of the audit and any subsequent renegotiation plans have not yet been disclosed. Sonko emphasized the government’s commitment to reassessing these agreements to ensure they align with the country’s interests. The commission will be well-resourced and may engage international experts if needed, although the timeline for the review remains unspecified.

This initiative comes on the heels of Senegal’s debut as an oil producer. In June, Australia’s Woodside Energy announced that its Sangomar oil and gas field had begun production. Additionally, gas production is expected to commence by the end of the year at the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) liquefied natural gas (LNG) project, operated by BP.

This follows allegations made by Aliko Dangote, President of the Dangote Group, who accused certain “mafias” of trying to sabotage his $20 billion refinery project. In an interview with the Financial Times, Obasanjo suggested that if the refinery succeeds, it could boost investment from both Nigerians and foreigners.

Officials from the Dangote Group recently expressed their frustrations, claiming that international oil companies obstruct the refinery’s operations by either refusing to sell crude oil or charging up to $4 above the standard price. They also accused the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Regulatory Authority of intentionally issuing licenses to individuals for importing contaminated fuel. In response, the regulator denied these claims, saying that Dangote’s diesel was inferior compared to imported ones.

Nj Ayuk, the chamber’s executive chairman, told Tradeque that by refusing to bankroll Africa’s oil and gas projects, with a direct bearing on the continent’s transitioning from energy poverty, lenders from the global north are engaging in financial apartheid that has nearly crippled the industry.

Mr Ayuk did not discuss their legal strategy, but suggested the lobby was mooting a legal challenge. He said African energy lobbies, governments and project sponsors are working together on a joint lawsuit, whose details “we will update soon.”

A spokesperson for the Total Energies-led East African Crude Oil Pipeline (Eacop) – which several lenders have declined to support – said the AEC had not yet approached the developers to discuss a potential joint lawsuit.

Citing environmental risk and oil-related climate backlash, European and American banks have heeded activist campaigns and declined to finance fossil fuel projects in Africa, the top of which is the Eacop, whose total cost is $5 billion.

The recent rupture of a crucial oil pipeline has sent fresh pain through the economy of South Sudan, where even the security forces haven’t been paid in nine months. Some soldiers and civil servants are turning to side hustles or abandoning their jobs.

South Sudan’s economy largely depends on the oil it exports via neighbouring Sudan. But war in Sudan has created widespread chaos, and the pipeline in an area of fighting ruptured in February. The drop in oil revenues has compounded South Sudan’s long problem of official mismanagement.

Now the already fragile country is seeing protests in the capital over lack of pay, with more expected. And its people are under pressure to make up the gap in salary payments in unexpected ways.

In the capital, Juba, a school deputy head teacher, Maburuk Kuyu Surur, said he has been teaching for 36 years and has never seen a salary delay like this one. That dates back well into the years before South Sudan won its independence from Sudan in 2011.

Surur said he and other teachers have been collecting small amounts of money from students’ families to help support themselves, even though schooling is free.

“We are suffering,” the 60-year-old said.

The government of President Salva Kiir, who has led South Sudan since independence and is under international pressure to prepare the country for delayed elections, has struggled in the economic crisis. The finance ministry has had six ministers since 2020, with the latest fired in July.

In recent weeks, The Associated Press visited government ministries and other offices in Juba and found them mostly empty during working hours. The remaining employees said colleagues had left after getting tired of working without pay since October.

One government worker said her salary — when it came — was the equivalent of $8 a month. She has since found work at a restaurant and makes about $20. She spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of retaliation.

“Prices keep rising every day,” she said. A 50-kilometer bag of maize flour now costs up to five times the price a year ago.

Inflation in South Sudan is 35% from a year ago, according to the World Bank. Meanwhile, the local currency has plunged against the U.S. dollar on the black market and in the official rate.

Even as a third of South Sudan’s oil still flows for export via another pipeline, the country’s president has openly expressed frustration with mismanagement as the government must rely more on non-oil revenue like taxes in imported goods.

Those revenues should be enough to cover salaries but the money isn’t reaching government accounts, Kiir said in July.

“We have nine solid months people have not received their salaries, and we have money,” he asserted after swearing in the latest finance minister.

Kiir instructed the minister to establish a single account for all revenues and crack down on corrupt practices in revenue collection.

The government hadn’t placed much emphasis on this before when more oil was flowing, said Boboya James, chief executive officer with the Juba-based Institute of Social Policy and Research.

He said the shrinking public finances are due to poor policies and corruption that have robbed the young nation of development funds.

Some external support continues. The African Development Bank and South Sudan’s government recently signed a $46.2 million agreement to support agricultural production through December 2030.

However international frustration from some partners who once cheered South Sudan’s independence has grown. Intercommunal violence continues even after the end of civil war years ago. The elections that were scheduled for last year have been postponed to December, but the United Nations says the work needed to carry them out is incomplete.

Displacement and poverty in the landlocked country are widespread. The U.N. has said 75% of the population relies on humanitarian aid.

South Sudan hopes to diversify its revenue with tourism and fruit and vegetable farming, among other ideas.

But its civil servants and security forces are showing signs of exhaustion.

In May, the foreign ministry said diplomats and staff in South Sudan’s foreign missions had not received their salaries since 2019. Many have gotten by with help from friends and loved ones.

But in June, a senior South Sudanese diplomat at the embassy in Rome was seen crying in a video posted online after he was evicted from his apartment for failing to pay rent.

At home, hundreds of university lecturers and others have protested in Juba over lack of pay. Security forces didn’t intervene.

Some of those security forces are quietly moving on, seeking other ways to make a living.

“I have decided to desert my government job and become a charcoal broker,” Akol Deng, a member of the armed forces, told Tradeque. He has been supplying charcoal to local restaurants and residential areas instead.

Despite Umeme’s efforts to negotiate, the government, through the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development and Uganda Electricity Distribution Company Limited (UEDCL), is reclaiming control. UEDCL has assured that it is well-prepared for this transition, distinguishing itself from the defunct Uganda Electricity Board (UEB) that preceded the sector’s liberalization.

In February, UEDCL Managing Director Paul Mwesigwa expressed confidence: “Our staff, the board, and management are fully prepared for the responsibilities that lie ahead.” UEB’s poor investment and management in the past contributed to its failure, leading to the urgent privatization and unbundling of the sector, which critics argued favored Umeme.

Umeme’s latest financial report indicates a commitment to facilitating a smooth transfer of assets and settlement of the buyout amount, set to finalize in March 2025. This is the first instance where the government is buying a profitable entity, as opposed to rescuing a failing one. The company can sell assets back to the government at 105% of book value, with full payment due by April 2025.

As the buyout date nears, stakeholders are closely watching the transition. Some view it as a relief, including President Yoweri Museveni, who has long criticized high electricity tariffs. Despite Umeme’s significant investments and profit generation, the President’s focus remains on reducing tariffs to support industrial competitiveness.

The Uganda Manufacturers Association has highlighted the need for more favorable electricity tariffs to stay competitive. However, a recent study suggested that low tariffs alone might not significantly boost industrial consumption.

Umeme has played a crucial role in transforming Uganda’s electricity sector, with investments exceeding $800 million since 2005. The company’s Yaka system has improved cost management and revenue, though recent financial results show a decrease in profit due to amortization and winding down activities.

As Uganda transitions from a model of privatization to renationalization, the process will bring significant changes for customers, employees, contractors, and investors. The shift from a private enterprise to a parastatal may introduce new challenges and political dynamics. The efficiency of service delivery and job security for Umeme employees are key concerns.

Contractors and suppliers face uncertainty about their ongoing relationships with UEDCL, while shareholders, especially international investors, are concerned about the buyout price. The government has yet to finalize the budget for the buyout, with recent clarifications indicating the need for thorough verification before allocating funds.

Efforts to ensure a smooth transition and continued high-quality service are critical. There are also rumors of potential Chinese investment, which could influence the process.

For the buyout to be successful, it must avoid controversies such as influence peddling and favoritism. Ultimately, the goal is to complete the transition in the public interest, maintaining investor confidence and ensuring a seamless handover.

In a meeting convened on Friday, September 15, 2023, at the Ministry of Defence and Veteran Affairs in Mbuya, Kampala, General Wilson Mbadi, the Chief of Defence Forces (CDF), urged both UPDF and UNOC to identify collaborative opportunities within the oil sector, particularly focusing on security, for the betterment of the Ugandan populace and the broader African pursuit of Pan Africanism.

Gen. Mbadi underscored the paramount importance of addressing the security aspect of this project, stressing the necessity for cooperation as outlined in Article 209 of the 1995 Uganda Constitution. This article assigns UPDF the responsibility to safeguard Uganda’s territorial integrity, engage with civilian authorities during crises, foster harmony between UPDF and civilians, and actively engage in the nation’s economic development.

Moreover, the CDF encouraged UNOC to persist in their efforts to empower Ugandans, enabling them to access diverse opportunities in the oil sector, including hospitality, construction, and transportation. He believed that this approach would mitigate negative sentiments and enhance the quality of life for Ugandans.

Gen. Mbadi also urged UNOC to disseminate knowledge about the oil resources throughout the nation, emphasizing that a clear understanding of the industry bolsters national security. He stressed that development cannot thrive in an insecure environment, and comprehension of the industry motivates individuals to safeguard and support it.

Furthermore, the senior UPDF officer motivated UNOC to provide regular and accurate updates on the project’s progress, formalize the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), explore potential areas of security collaboration, and clarify their Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) commitments.

He pledged to facilitate guided tours of critical facilities such as the oil refinery, East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP), Kabaleega International Airport, and Kabaale Industrial Park to familiarize UPDF officers with the project.

In conclusion, Gen. Mbadi expressed confidence that the oil and gas industry would have a positive cascading effect on the military and stimulate economic development. He reaffirmed UPDF’s dedication to ensuring the security of the project and encouraged UNOC to fulfill its role.

In the same meeting, UNOC Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Ms. Proscovia Nabbanja acknowledged the potential threats facing the oil and gas industry, including terrorism, vandalism, fires, explosions, and oil spills. She committed to collaborating with all stakeholders to ensure the sector’s success. She highlighted ongoing joint ventures, capacity-building meetings, and efforts to secure affordable loans for suppliers.

The CEO also mentioned the integration of oil-related modules into training manuals to enhance local content for the project. She emphasized that districts hosting oil projects and their respective traditional institutions would collaborate closely with the state.